Consapiracy Theories
By Gautam Prabhu
Ever come across people who believe that the moon landing was fake or that vaccines cause autism? Of course, you have. In this article, we discuss how such conspiracy theories arise, how it affects society and how to be on the lookout for them.
“Climate change is a hoax”, writes Sudhir on his WhatsApp group full of middle-aged people going through a midlife crisis, as the third cyclone in 2 months destroys his neighbourhood. Just one of the hundreds of conspiracy theories going around.
Conspiracy theories...hmmm. A term you might have heard several times in the past few years. What exactly is a conspiracy theory? When a group of people believe in something that defies most logical reasoning, garners utter disdain from experts and lacks substantial evidence to back it up, it is called a conspiracy theory. Most conspiracy theories believe in some sinister plot orchestrated by a powerful group of people. People who would do anything to benefit themselves. I mean, why wouldn't you accept this, right? We live in a narcissist world, and yes, I am old enough to be this cynical. The internet said so.
Conspiracy theories are innately built on such effective cognitive formulae that even the most hardcore conspiracy un-theorist may believe in something conspiratorial. Everybody has an uncle who thinks that the international media is conspiring against Modi or that Rihanna is colluding with Indian farmers.
It is difficult to argue against such theories because they rely heavily on resisting falsification and using circular reasoning to prove their points. It means that both evidence against the hypothesis and evidence for it can serve as evidence of its truth. This makes the conspiracy a matter of faith rather than something that can be proven or disproven.
For example, some people, cough Republicans and Trump loyalists, believed that the US elections in 2020 were rigged despite having no evidence to support it. Their blind faith that Trump would come back to power makes them assume that the Democrats must have fudged results while the evidence showing a fair election only reinforces their belief.
So how do these seemingly illogical and improbable theories get mainstream? Most conspiracy theories are an easy explanation to an incredibly chaotic world. It is much easier to believe that the Earth is flat than Newton's Laws of Physics, right? These theories appeal to the human tendency of proportionality bias, amongst various other cognitive biases, which assumes that a big event must have a big cause. The notion that a tragic event like Princess Diana’s death could have an explanation as simple as a human error rather than an elaborate, convoluted plan by the royal family to have her killed, is sometimes just unbelievable.
And these theories are much more popular than you might believe. A study found that over 50% of Americans believe in at least one conspiracy theory at a given time. As a true patriot, I believe that anything Americans can do, we can do better. So I’m gonna say 75% of Indians believe in conspiratorial stories at any time. With our population and our history with superstitions, that's probably true. There you have it, America.
Another crucial factor that creates and pushes conspiracy theories is anybody who can attract a large audience. Politicians, religious leaders, journalists etc, especially in this age of social media, spread all kinds of theories among their supporters and followers. These people may not believe in these theories, but they find it an effective tool to gain public approval. Just take the example of Donald Trump. In the few years that he has been active in politics. He has managed to spread an incredible number of conspiracy theories ranging from Obama’s birthplace being in Kenya to QAnon, a cult that believes all Democrats are Satan-worshipping cannibals who feast on human babies.
Again as a true patriot, I must bring up a conspiracy from my motherland India to rival the west, which gripped most of the nation for two months in 2020. The Sushant Singh Rajput Murder Conspiracy Theory. This theory divulged from any corrective line of enquiry and replaced it with a murder mystery. The tragic killing of the Bollywood underdog conspired by his girlfriend, the drug mafia, Bollywood bigshots and god knows who. It is a heart-warming tale, appealing more to the heart than the mind.
What followed were two months of extraordinary media trials and witch hunts laden with rich ulterior motives to shift attention from the pandemic and give people an activity in which they could participate free of cost. Incredibly, the theories reached a point where people would rather believe that his girlfriend Rhea Chakrabarty killed him using black magic rather than assuming he was depressed. Unfortunately, all it has managed to do is ruin the reputation of a respectable actor to a drug-addled man-child whose life was controlled by his girlfriend. Well, the nation wanted to know.
Historical data shows that global health crises are a hotbed for various conspiracy theories. In the 14th century, people believed that Jewish people were responsible for the Bubonic plague. While in the 1890s, amid the Russian Flu, people thought that the electric light caused it and in 1918, the year of the Spanish Flu, Americans believed that German pharma giant Bayer tainted their Aspirin supply to the US, causing the flu. If only they knew what Germany was ‘actually’ planning to do. Sigh.
Anyway, continuing with the trend, even the Coronavirus outbreak brought with it a ton of conspiracy theories. The only difference now is the advent of the internet, which allows people to spread news faster and make it appear much more convincing and authoritative. Theories ranging from the origin of the pandemic to its existence to vaccine hesitancy are rampant on the internet. Experts believe vaccine hesitancy is the main reason for the reappearance of ostensibly eradicated diseases like measles and polio. This just goes to show that even a few people believing in the theories could pose a massive risk to society.
So it begs the question, how do we avoid falling into the trap of these theories?
Well, of course, there is no one foolproof answer. But the most important thing in such situations is to develop critical thinking skills. And yes, we’re all capable of it. There are a few questions you can ask when faced with a seeming conspiracy theory :
Ask yourself if there is a rational non - conspiracy explanation (Occam’s Razor)
Has this been held up to scrutiny by experts? They are experts for a reason. Don't believe everything on the internet.
How plausible is the theory in a practical matter?
Just to be clear, biological proof that some people could be more susceptible to falling prey to conspiracy theory isn’t a rationalization for you believing that we’re all living in the matrix. Though, that would be cool, wouldn’t it?
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